Bryan Mbeumo is expected to leave Newcastle, so who should they sign in his place?
Bryan Mbeumo, a Cameroonian winger, has been a target for Newcastle United for months, if not years. However, the Cameroonian will not be visiting St. James’ Park this summer. Newcastle has some work to do, and Mbeumo will go to Manchester United instead. Since the now-deceased Miguel Almirón’s performance started to wane, they had at least required a winger for a year. The failure to sign Mbeumo, whose reported weekly wage demands caused the pursuit to end, could be a major setback for the team as it attempts to solidify its place near the top of the Premier League standings after failing to find a replacement for the Paraguayan last summer.
The good news is that Newcastle has at least two options in mind. According to The Athletic, Antoine Semenyo and Anthony Elanga, who was the target of a £45 million bid at the end of the previous summer transfer window, are at the top of the Magpies’ shortlist, but one would be a much better investment than the other.
Newcastle should chase this player now that Bryan Mbeumo is no longer an option.
Without a question, Elanga is a player who creates champagne moments when he is at his best. Nottingham Forest’s brilliant solo strike against Manchester United in April, one of six goals scored during the team’s stellar league season, perfectly encapsulated all that has made him such a delightful player to watch.
His speed, drive, directness, finishing touch, and ability to send defenders reeling backwards with fast feet and an aggressive attacking play were all evident in one goal. In addition, he has a history of scoring goals that make headlines. That was an act of retaliation, a very private message to his former employers to reconsider their transfer policy.
Manchester United suggests they may have learned a lot since allowing the Swede to depart in 2023 by signing Mbeumo, who has been among the league’s top wingers for the last two seasons. In contrast to many of his younger former coworkers at Old Trafford, the 23-year-old Elanga has matured and fulfilled his promise. He is not, however, the best candidate for the position at St. James’ Park because of that.
At first look, choosing between Elanga and Semenyo seems to come down to what kind of output you need most. This season, Elanga scored six league goals but more importantly, contributed eleven more. Semenyo, on the other hand, was better at scoring goals—11 times—but only contributed five assists.
Newcastle, whose attack is based on Alexander Isak’s unique skill and deadly instincts, appears to need a provider more than a goal scorer, and a cursory look at the statistics indicates that Elanga is the right candidate. Additionally, Eddie Howe wants his team to play with relentless aggression, pressing, and moving the ball at his players’ feet as fast as possible between phases, all of which are perfectly complemented by his direct style of football.
Elanga would indeed be a fine signing, one whose knack for electrifying the supporters in the stands would probably produce plenty of magical moments. But the reality is that a closer look into the stats, and a greater knowledge of what Newcastle’s two prospective targets are capable of, reveals that Semenyo may well be the better deal.
Why Anthony Elanga wouldn’t be as good a signing as Antoine Semenyo
Price is a disclaimer that must be removed immediately. It’s unclear what Bournemouth may ask for, or if Elanga would cost significantly more than the £45 million deal that was turned down a year or so ago. Numerous sources have proposed prices between £60 and £70 million, however it is obvious that these are speculative estimates rather than accurate representations of the Cherries’ asking price. That is still confidential.
Semenyo might therefore be the second-best option for Newcastle’s particular circumstance if he turns out to be significantly more costly than Elanga. But when all else is equal, Semenyo just provides more. It’s possible that Elanga’s more than twofold assist total is more of a statistical anomaly than an accurate reflection of their disparate skill sets. In addition to providing 5.7 “expected assists” per game this season in the Premier League, Elanga was at least somewhat to blame for his teammates’ 3.67 shooting opportunities per game. In contrast, Semenyo produced 3.71 shooting opportunities and 5.8xA every 90 minutes.
In summary, Semenyo’s two-footedness and steadily improving ability to beat defenders on both sides of the ball and deliver an accurate final ball make it hardly surprising that he’s at least on par with Elanga over the past year. However, Elanga had a slightly longer track record as a first-rate chance creator than the Ghanaian winger, who actually created more and better chances, albeit by the narrowest margin. He was simply let down by the players who ended up with the opportunities that he created.
Semenyo is the obvious choice if we assume that both players have an equal likelihood of creating opportunities for Isak. Although Elanga occasionally has good chances to score, Semenyo is a much more reliable scorer. In addition to scoring five more goals this season than Elanga, Semenyo achieved this from a predicted goal total that was more than double that of Elanga. He scores more regularly and into riskier situations.
To add to that, he’s a far more effective presser than Elanga, responsible for well over twice as many turnovers per game when out of possession, and while Elanga is perhaps marginally quicker, Semenyo has plenty of pace and successfully beats defenders one-on-one more than twice as often as his Swedish counterpart. Elanga is a fantastic fit for Howe’s direct style of play, but Semenyo should slot in just as well.
A perceived higher ceiling is a good reason to sign a player as part of a long-term project, but Semenyo is barely aging and has plenty of strong years ahead of him while producing more now, with a better all-around game, at a time when Newcastle will once again have to compete in both the domestic and European game. Elanga is, admittedly, slightly younger (Semenyo is now 25) and may have slightly more potential for growth.
Newcastle needs to make sure that they have more quality in the squad this time around, not just more potential. With Mbeumo off the board, Semenyo seems like the perfect addition, but which way will they go at the end of the summer? The last time they were in those demanding waters, they were unable to stay in the top four.
READ MORE: sportchannel.co.uk
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