Like the majority of their primary opponents for European football, Newcastle United is only one victory away from qualifying for the Champions League. 
With dreams of making it to the Champions League the next season, Newcastle United, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Nottingham Forest all enter the season’s last day. On what looks to be a thrilling season-ending day, just three of those five teams will advance. The only thing in doubt going into the season’s last day is the fight for a top-five finish, as the relegation spots and champions have already been determined. Thankfully, Newcastle United is aware of how easy their assignment is. St. James’ Park will host Champions League football and a match against Everton.
Any other outcome gives their opponents the opportunity to strike during a convoluted afternoon. Chelsea’s trip to the City Ground to play Forest presents an additional challenge because it might be a straight-up contest between the Blues and Tricky Trees, though other outcomes could yet affect that.
What, then, do the statisticians think Sunday will bring? Do they believe Newcastle United will make it back to the Champions League, or do they believe they will not place in the top five?
OPTA’s Premier League predictions
Eddie Howe’s team will do enough on Sunday to place in the top five and qualify for the Champions League, according to Opta. According to their model, which was accurate as of Wednesday night, Newcastle United will end in fourth place, which is where they will be sitting on Sunday.
According to the analysts, Manchester City, who start the weekend two points ahead of them in the Premier League standings, will also secure the outcome necessary to guarantee third place. However, things become interesting below Newcastle United.
Opta predicts that Aston Villa will overtake Chelsea to slip into the top five on Sunday. The Blues are predicted to lose against Nuno Espirito Santo’s team, and Villa, who travel to Old Trafford, are predicted to win that match.
According to the model, Chelsea and Forest will draw their match at the City Ground, which will hurt both teams’ chances of making it into the Champions League. Forest is aware that in order to finish in the top five, they need to overcome Chelsea on Sunday and pray that either Newcastle or Villa loses to Everton or Manchester United. The two-time European champions have spent most of the season in the top half of the Premier League, but a late-season slip-up might cost them a spot in Europe’s top league again.
Newcastle United, on the other hand, has had an incredible comeback in the second part of the season and has pushed their way into the Champions League picture by amassing 46 points in their last 22 games, including victories over Nottingham Forest and Chelsea at St. James’ Park.
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