With just 11 games left in the season, we currently sit 15th in the Premier League table. Apart from week two, we’ve spent the entire campaign between 12th and 16th place. Graham Potter took charge on January 10th, meaning this match marks two months under his leadership. When he arrived, we were 14th, and in his seven league games, we’ve secured three wins, one draw, and three losses—totaling 10 points. Notably, our recent back-to-back victories mark the first time we’ve achieved consecutive wins this season. Can we make it three in a row?
Newcastle, sitting sixth before this round, are just three points off a Champions League spot but have struggled recently. They’ve lost three of their last four league games, conceding 11 goals in the process. Surprisingly, we beat them 2-0 in the reverse fixture back in November, with goals from Soucek and Wan-Bissaka. However, our home record against Newcastle is poor—we haven’t beaten them at the London Stadium since a 2-0 win in March 2019 under Manuel Pellegrini, with goals from Rice and Noble.
Historically, Newcastle have had the upper hand. In the 21st century, we’ve beaten them just 11 times in 41 league meetings, and only twice in the 12 matches since that 2019 victory.
So, how do we assess this season so far? Two head coaches, a campaign spent entirely in the bottom half of the table, and a leaky defense with 47 goals conceded—only four teams have let in more. Offensively, we’ve struggled too, scoring just 32 goals, with only four sides faring worse. Our biggest issue? A lack of accuracy in front of goal. Despite creating decent chances, we rank bottom of the league for shots on target, with only Southampton having a worse conversion rate.
Newcastle, meanwhile, rely heavily on Alexander Isak, one of the Premier League’s most complete strikers, who has scored nearly half of their league goals. He will be a major threat, though they’ll be without Anthony Gordon, suspended after his red card in their last game. His likely replacement, Harvey Barnes, has a history of playing well and scoring against us.
Lucas Paquetá’s situation remains a dark cloud. The FA’s case against him for alleged betting rule breaches is expected to be heard soon, and it seems the odds are against him. Unlike criminal proceedings, which require proof “beyond reasonable doubt,” FA hearings only need evidence to be more likely than not. If found guilty, he could face a lifetime ban—a massive blow for both player and club. Paquetá denies the charges, but if the FA gets its way, the consequences could be severe.
Despite the season’s struggles, there’s a growing sense of optimism under Potter. Many fans back him, and while it’s still early days, the team seems to be heading in a more positive direction. The key question remains—can Newcastle be the first team we do the double over this season?
Our last league double over them came in 2018-19, with a 2-0 home win and a commanding 3-0 victory at St. James’ Park. We still have five chances left this season to complete a double—against Newcastle, Manchester United, Ipswich, Wolves, and Southampton.
On paper, our final 11 fixtures aren’t the toughest, with six of them against teams in the bottom eight. Extending our winning (or at least unbeaten) run would be ideal, but with West Ham, you never quite know what to expect!
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