Celtic, Rangers, and Hearts’ harsh coefficient reality as a trap door presents a catastrophic Champions League scenario

It has been a positive start to the league phase for Celtic and Rangers – but much more is required Scottish clubs have gotten off to a great start in the group stage of the redesigned European league competitions, but the Premiership winners won’t be returning to the Champions League automatically anytime soon.

Furthermore, when the Czech Republic eliminated our country from the top 10 last season, the situation for Scottish clubs in Europe’s top league may get even worse. At the beginning of the most recent European campaign, a staggering 9.75 points had slipped through UEFA’s trap door and out of our five-year total. The decline has only become bigger this term.

The 2019–20 season, in which Celtic and Rangers both scored an enormous amount of points, will no longer be included in the total. After missing out on the Champions League playoffs, Celtic advanced to the Europa League, where they finished in the top 32 and earned 16.5 coefficient points.

Rangers would also have success in the Europa League; they would go past the group stage and into the round of sixteen, earning an additional eighteen points.

But with that now missing, Scotland have plummeted to 17th in the coefficient table. That is despite Celtic getting off to a winning start in the Champions League against Slovan Bratislava – with 8 points already added to the pot by Brendan Rodgers’ side.

Despite defeat in the Champions League play-off round to Dynamo Kyiv, the first leg draw with the Ukrainian champions coupled with the win over Malmo in the Europa League means Philippe Clement has helped add 2.5 points so far.

Kilmarnock and St Mirren added 2.5 and 2 points in their failed bid to reach the league phase of the Europa League and Conference League. Hearts will look to add to the pot when they face Dinamo Minsk in the Conference League next week having chipped in with zero so far after failing to pick up a win or a draw in the Europa League playoff rounds.

But with that now missing, Scotland have plummeted to 17th in the coefficient table. That is despite Celtic getting off to a winning start in the Champions League against Slovan Bratislava – with 8 points already added to the pot by Brendan Rodgers’ side.

Despite defeat in the Champions League play-off round to Dynamo Kyiv, the first leg draw with the Ukrainian champions coupled with the win over Malmo in the Europa League means Philippe Clement has helped add 2.5 points so far.

Kilmarnock and St Mirren added 2.5 and 2 points in their failed bid to reach the league phase of the Europa League and Conference League. Hearts will look to add to the pot when they face Dinamo Minsk in the Conference League next week having chipped in with zero so far after failing to pick up a win or a draw in the Europa League playoff rounds.

As is stands, Scotland have averaged a coefficient tally of 3 this term – which is dwarfed by the massive haul banked back in 2019/20. As it stands we have cut the gap on 16th placed Greece to 0.2 points and on Denmark to 0.275 points in 15th.

With a current tally of 29.3 we remain some way off the top 10. Turkey currently sit in that spot on 36.9 – but a deep run from Scottish clubs this term could pile the pressure on.

It might be more challenging for Scottish clubs to advance to the Champions League league stage and the £40 million prize money, though, if Scotland were to stay in 17th place.

The winners of the Scottish championship will advance to the Champions League knockout stages starting in the following season, while the runners-up advance to the second qualifying round. The club that places third will advance to the Europa League’s second qualifying round, while the Conference League’s third place will advance at the same time.

However, during the 2026–2027 season, the champions only go to the second round of the Champions League qualification tournament if they finish 17th in the coefficient table.

As things stand, only the third-place club and runners-up would go to the Conference League’s second round and play in Europe. For Scottish clubs, that would be a nightmare scenario because the road to qualification gets harder every year. Celtic, Rangers, and Hearts have the responsibility of initiating a new surge for the coefficient.

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