A prominent political analyst says that Donald Trump’s prospects of defeating Kamala Harris in the general election of 2024 have increased recently due to a run of favorable polls.
In the most recent projection, 538, the vice president is still regarded as the favorite, but with 41 days remaining before Election Day, the Republican nominee is catching up.
Harris now has a 55-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College thanks to 538, formerly known as Five-Thirty-Eight, while Trump’s chances have increased to 45-in-100, up from 39 in September. The shift stems from two polls: a New York Times/Siena study that places Trump ahead in the crucial Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and a Quinnipiac Poll that finds Trump leading Harris by one percent nationally. Just 24 hours after Trump gave a similar policy speech in Savannah, Harris is back on the campaign trail in Pittsburgh today to outline her strategy to boost manufacturing across the United States.
Donald Trump sees increase in his chances of winning the election after strong polls
Donald Trump’s chances of beating Kamala Harris have improved off the back of a series of strong polls, according to a top election forecaster.
The former president has seen a 10 percent bump since September, according to 538 in their latest prediction of who is on course to win the electoral college.
Harris is still the favorite, with a 55 percent chance of victory, while Trump is now at 45 percent after an increase from 39 percent on September 17.
538’s G. Elliott Morris said Trump’s bump is off the back of a national Quinnipiac Poll showing him one point ahead and a New York Times/Siena Poll showing him leading in the critical Sun Belt states of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
‘That’s barely better than a coin flip!’ Morris adds.
‘Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades — the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years.’
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