The evolution of Jarren Duran has been a fascinating one.Speed was the main factor used to rate the 2018 seventh-round selection pick. Upon reaching the Major Leagues, he was viewed by some scouts as a powerful extra-base hitter who could hit the ball with a line-drive contact and cause chaos on the base paths, given his 70 mph speed and a 55 grade on his hit tool. Regarding his potential, MLB’s scouting report stated that “[he] could very well end up as an extra outfielder with one above-average tool, or as a sturdy centerfield regular.” His Major League career began with him appearing to be the latter for the first two years.
A peek of the future was presented to us last year. He has earned the right to start every day in the lineup and on the field this year.
Offense
Starting with the bat, let’s. Even though they showed signs of progress, his OPS+ figures from his first two seasons—53 and 78—were much below replacement level. It was 121 in 102 games the previous year, and it is 104 in 41 games this year. That’s a lot closer to the right side of the line, and 2023 will finally show a real breakthrough in this regard. Though I would contend he has had more of an impact on the lineup this year than last, that 104 may look like a decline.
April 1st in Oakland, during the thick of the BoSox’s intense opening week.
Duran has a fantastic day at the plate despite hitting three singles that aren’t extra base hits. On every single play, he also swipes three bases. The first three innings of the game saw all of this occur.
This played a part in the Red Sox setting record of five bags taken in five games. This served as a sample of Duran’s ability to get on base generally as well as wreaking havoc on the bases.
April 5th will always be remembered as a hard day in 2024. Trevor Story’s season ended after just one week due to an unusual injury sustained by the Red Sox player. The defense, which has allowed three mistakes and four unearned runs, is still a hot mess. Six innings in, Duran already has an RBI single. Late in the game, with the score deadlocked, Duran uses his strength to give the team a boost.
He has consistently prolonged singles into doubles and doubles into triples, even in the previous several weeks. With ridiculous speed percentiles in every season—96, 93, 96, and 93 (so far)—his speed has never been in doubt. The problem has been with how he has applied his speed. The Red Sox of recent seasons have committed the stupidest errors on the base paths, leading to easy outs that have either stopped momentum or turned it on its head. Duran wasn’t the only offender. Duran’s use of speed has been so effective this season that it’s difficult to continue to refer to it as a tool and not a real weapon.
Championships are won by defense, not by attack. The Boston Red Sox’s defense in 2024 is still somewhat poor. Third worst in all of baseball is a team’s fielding percentage of.980. At the close of an inning that saw runs for the Orioles on Opening Day at Fenway Park, Duran froze a regular line drive. He was observed punching his stall and calling himself foolish at his locker after the game. He’s turned that around to become a strong center fielder, despite how tough and self-deprecating that is of him.
It’s quite the transformation from the guy who lost popups in the lights and dropped fly balls the previous season to a competent defender. He started the season as a -1 fielding run value player but has already improved to a +3 this season. Compared to 57 previous year, his Outs Above Average is in the 92nd percentile. Has he been fortunate in any way that Ceddanne Rafaela became the starting shortstop due to Trevor Story’s injury, allowing Duran to become rather comfortable in center field? This writer’s answer to the survey is yes. Despite playing 28 games in center field, he has still played 22 in left field. He was given the chance by fate, but he’s seized it and bolted, both literally and figuratively.
Still, Jarren Duran is only one player on the unfortunate and poor Red Sox roster.
This may end up being another season to discover which parts are worth assembling for the foundation of this club, with no real expectations of success—whether the team flames out or slips into a Wild Card.
In fact, we were so enamored with Rafaela throughout the offseason that our own Duran was only described as a “adequate replacement.”
He showed glimpses of his true self last year, but this year, and hopefully for a much longer time, he has been much more.
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