Given the extreme unpredictability of both baseball and long-term weather patterns, it seems only fitting that we combine our two wildest predictions!
One of the most potent natural occurrences on the planet is set to take effect some 4,000 miles southwest of Boston, in the vast, lonely, and deserted tropical waters of the equatorial Pacific. This is the beginning of a domino effect that will cause natural disasters, change crop yields worth billions of dollars (hi John Henry! You can control the weather at your cousin’s wedding, influence the baseball season, and how your soybean futures are doing.
As the engine of Earth’s climate machine, the tropical Pacific is able to achieve all of this. It is so enormous that if you were to travel straight through the crust and core of the planet and emerge on the other side, you would end up off the northern coast of Vietnam, still in the tropical Pacific Ocean! This point is in the Pacific, off the southern coast of Peru. Imagine that! It is therefore evident very quickly whose body of water controls the weather on this rock when it comes to hot water, as something that holds this much of the world’s hot water and which has a significantly higher kinetic energy by nature than cold water.
There is, however, a strange, amazing, and lovely disclaimer: much of the water surrounding Earth’s equator isn’t particularly warm. And the reason for this is because most of the ocean is so deep that it is never exposed to sunlight. Therefore, cooler water, unaffected by the warmth of the sun’s rays, can gather and hide just a few hundred feet below the surface, while hotter water can bake on the equatorial Pacific’s surface and give us an El Niño like the one we’ve experienced for much of the last year. This is precisely the procedure that started in the first few months of 2024:
Over the past five or six weeks, there has already been a noticeable advancement in the cold water upwelling. The equatorial tropical Pacific’s sea surface temperatures were as follows on April 2nd:
And now, this is the appearance of those sea surface temperatures from the previous week:
The warmth of the eastern portion of the basin has already seen a massive hole blow, so it should come as no surprise that the most recent NOAA forecast indicates that a full-blown La Niña will form by the end of the summer.
Due to the disruption of the weaker southern jet stream caused by the Pacific events, we would typically expect hot, dry, and windy conditions across the northeastern United States during a summer La Niña pattern. Alternatively, a typical everlasting summer pattern can be formed by connecting the seasonal Bermuda High with a stronger-than-normal southeast ridge. But things are more complicated than that.
Reversing an ocean liner is analogous to altering a global weather trend. It’s not rapid! Given that the La Niña pattern is still developing, the remnants of the previous pattern (which featured a robust southern jet stream) are still present, and May is halfway through, it seems improbable that we will witness a full-fledged summer La Niña pattern. Stated differently, don’t pack away your umbrellas just yet. There is still more of this precipitation-heavy, turbulent phase to navigate.
However, without a source, it will soon run out of steam. As summer approaches its second half, above-average temperatures may prevail over the I-95 corridor well into the later part of the season. The majority of the time, warm, muggy evenings at the ballpark will be accompanied by southwesterly winds when/if this shift occurs. Furthermore, those appear to be very advantageous hitting circumstances because almost all ballparks face north and east, away from the setting sun.
It’s a quick but interesting side point that baseball fields are constructed with hitters facing away from the setting sun, which is why lefthanded pitchers are called southpaws. The moniker “southpaw” comes from the fact that any lefthanded pitcher with this constant alignment will release the ball from the southern half of the mound in almost any ballpark. This prognosis becomes a very interesting dynamic early in the season, especially for the Red Sox. The offense, which is struggling to produce a huge hit, may benefit from a lift if Casas and Yoshida return. However, the pitching, which has been surprisingly excellent thus far, will be put to the test as these months progress.
I’m particularly focused on one particular portion of the timetable. This 36-game run, which takes place over the course of 38 days, from August 9 to September 15, goes as follows: 3 against the Astros 3 against the Rangers 4 at the Orioles 3 at the Astros Day Off 3 against the D-Backs 4 against the Toronto Blue Jays 3 at the Tigers 3 against the Mets Day Off 3 against the White Sox 3 against the Orioles 4 at the Yankees
That means that Boston, New York, or Baltimore will host 30 of the 36 games. Thus, the enthusiastic pitching staff may be put to the test if a hot pattern does take hold over the northeast by August and continues well into the latter part of summer. That being said, I’m happy to report that Cooper Criswell is throwing so well at the moment that the front office might struggle to find a replacement for him in the rotation when Garrett Whitlock returns. Tanner Houck is pitching like a maniac and might really become an ace, which excites me.
They feel comfortable sending Josh Winckowski to Worcester to work on things and possibly add depth to the rotation, which is fantastic. They’re going to need these alternatives if they survive this part of the season, so I’m glad they have them! Here is the NOAA seasonal temperature outlook for August, September, and, since I’m feeling very upbeat today, October to bring everything together.
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